Couple of matches that interest me tonight in Brasil.
The first involving Facundo Bagnis. He faces Machado tonight and I think the value is with the Argentine. He came through qualies which included a very good win against the promising youngster Del Bonis. I think Machado should be favourite but the odds should be tighter. He's only 20 years of age and on the up and will see this as a great chance to notch a big win. At 13/8, it's worth a small back.
The second match is between Igor Andreev and Leo Mayer. Andreev lost to Giraldo last week in what seemed like a bit of a shocker but the Colombian went on to push Robredo all the way in the final so Igor can be excused that result. I feel he is massively overpriced in this matchup tonight. Leo Mayer came through qualies winning three matches although the most difficult was against a player ranked 187th. Before this he had lost 11 matches in a row, dating back to last years French Open. So to beat a solid clay courter like Andreev today you would be mad backing him at general 11/8. 8/13 available on Andreev deserves to be hammered into.
Bagnis bt Machado 1pt win @ 13/8 (Betfred)
Andreev bt Mayer 3.5pts win @ 8/13 (Boylesports)
Tuesday, February 8, 2011
Monday, February 7, 2011
Exeter vs Brentford
I've found a market in this Johnstones Paint Trophy tie that interests me.
Exeter's home matches have averaged 3.5 goals a game, while Brentfords away matches average a total of 2.6 goals a game. So I'm a little surprised that Over 2.5 goals is priced at 19/20. I would have expected it to be around the 8/11 mark.
Exeter vs Brentford Over 2.5 goals 2pts win @ 19/20 (WillHill)
Exeter's home matches have averaged 3.5 goals a game, while Brentfords away matches average a total of 2.6 goals a game. So I'm a little surprised that Over 2.5 goals is priced at 19/20. I would have expected it to be around the 8/11 mark.
Exeter vs Brentford Over 2.5 goals 2pts win @ 19/20 (WillHill)
Friday, February 4, 2011
Ljubicic vs Dodig
The two Croats meet in Zagreb later today and I feel Ljubicic is slightly overpriced.
He leads the H2H 2-0, and looked very clinical in the last round defeating Brands without facing a single break point. A similar performance will make it an extremely tough afternoon for Dodig. Dodig had an impressive win in the last round dispatching Marchenko, more impressive considering how he had been blown off the court by him last year at the same tournament. But against such a powerful figure in Croatian tennis I think the task may be too big for him today.
Ljubicic bt Dodig 2pts win @ 4/7 (Boylesports)
He leads the H2H 2-0, and looked very clinical in the last round defeating Brands without facing a single break point. A similar performance will make it an extremely tough afternoon for Dodig. Dodig had an impressive win in the last round dispatching Marchenko, more impressive considering how he had been blown off the court by him last year at the same tournament. But against such a powerful figure in Croatian tennis I think the task may be too big for him today.
Ljubicic bt Dodig 2pts win @ 4/7 (Boylesports)
Thursday, February 3, 2011
Bari vs Inter Milan
Inter head to Bari tonight hoping to continue their good form under new coach Leonardo. Hoping to launch a late charge towards the title they know how important it is to put teams like Bari to the sword.
Bari are adrift at the bottom of the table and look to have given up the ghost and a team as poor as them with no confidence will not be looking to forward to facing a combination of Etoo,Pazzini and Milito. Most firms are pricing Inter around the 4/9-1-2 mark so the 8/13 on offer from Totesport has to be taken advantage of. I feel that this level of value is worthy of heavy support.
Inter Milan to bt Bari 3pts win @ 8/13
Bari are adrift at the bottom of the table and look to have given up the ghost and a team as poor as them with no confidence will not be looking to forward to facing a combination of Etoo,Pazzini and Milito. Most firms are pricing Inter around the 4/9-1-2 mark so the 8/13 on offer from Totesport has to be taken advantage of. I feel that this level of value is worthy of heavy support.
Inter Milan to bt Bari 3pts win @ 8/13
Tennis
Gasquet takes on an ageing Clement today in Zagreb. Well past his best he struggled badly last year while Gasquet is still trying to find consistency in his game. But Gasquet should dominate this all french affair in a tournament in which he should have high hopes of challenging for looking at the form of the rest of the field.
Starace leads the head to head 4-0 against Andujar so I'm slightly surprised he is not priced shorter than he is today. He had a tough win in the first round and should be accustomed to conditions now. He should be able to get past Andujar today for the 5th time in a row.
Andreev takes on Giraldo in Santiago and in my opinion is an all round better clay courter than the South American. He also tends to play very well at this time of year and has had good success on the South American clay swing in recent years. I'm surprised the Russian is priced as high as he is and hopefully he can be a bit too solid for Giraldo later today.
Gasquet bt Clement & Starace bt Andujar 1pt double @ 1.82 (SportingBet)
Andreev bt Giraldo 1.5pts win @ 5/6 (StanJames)
Starace leads the head to head 4-0 against Andujar so I'm slightly surprised he is not priced shorter than he is today. He had a tough win in the first round and should be accustomed to conditions now. He should be able to get past Andujar today for the 5th time in a row.
Andreev takes on Giraldo in Santiago and in my opinion is an all round better clay courter than the South American. He also tends to play very well at this time of year and has had good success on the South American clay swing in recent years. I'm surprised the Russian is priced as high as he is and hopefully he can be a bit too solid for Giraldo later today.
Gasquet bt Clement & Starace bt Andujar 1pt double @ 1.82 (SportingBet)
Andreev bt Giraldo 1.5pts win @ 5/6 (StanJames)
Golf - Phoenix Open
Backing two players this week who look suited to this course.
Phil Mickelson has won here twice in the past and looked very good last week at Torrey Pines, finishing in second spot. The same level of play here should see him go close again and hopefully he can get it done.
Rickie Fowler came second here last year and probably should have won it. Still waiting for his first win of his career and surealy he'll fancy his chances here. Since the Ryder Cup he has finished 4th, 22nd, 5th, 3rd and 20th. Impressive.
Phil Mickelson 1pt win @ 8/1
Rickie Fowler 0.5pts each way @ 20/1
Phil Mickelson has won here twice in the past and looked very good last week at Torrey Pines, finishing in second spot. The same level of play here should see him go close again and hopefully he can get it done.
Rickie Fowler came second here last year and probably should have won it. Still waiting for his first win of his career and surealy he'll fancy his chances here. Since the Ryder Cup he has finished 4th, 22nd, 5th, 3rd and 20th. Impressive.
Phil Mickelson 1pt win @ 8/1
Rickie Fowler 0.5pts each way @ 20/1
Wednesday, February 2, 2011
Blackburn vs Tottenham
Spurs travel to Blackburn tonight in search of a win to keep alive their slim hopes of challenging for the title with a decimated defence. I feel the 3/4 on offer from Totesport for both teams to score represents decent value.
Blackburn have only failed to score twice at home so far this season and Spurs are always an attacking threat, and with their defence having such big injuries you feel they will have to focus on attacking Blackburn as much as possible to keep the onus away from their defence. I expected the price to be closer to the 4/7-8/13 mark so I'm happy to take the 3/4 on offer.
Both Teams To Score 1.25 pts win @ 3/4 (Totesport)
Blackburn have only failed to score twice at home so far this season and Spurs are always an attacking threat, and with their defence having such big injuries you feel they will have to focus on attacking Blackburn as much as possible to keep the onus away from their defence. I expected the price to be closer to the 4/7-8/13 mark so I'm happy to take the 3/4 on offer.
Both Teams To Score 1.25 pts win @ 3/4 (Totesport)
Cilic vs Kunitsyn & Bellucci vs Machado
Tight loss on Massu last night, and today nothing jumps out immediately as any sort of value. I've pondered over this short priced double and decided to go ahead with it.
Cilic is obviously a better player than Kunitsyn. When put on a surface he loves and in Zagreb then he looks an absolute lock today. He is the current champion of this event is slowly regaining his form with a good showing at the Australian Open which included a tough win against American John Isner. On a court which he clearly loves, having won back to back titles this will be too tough a match for Kunitsyn to cope with. Kunitsyn struggles big time outside of his homeland, he has been reduced to challengers infact and when he has got into an ATP main draw he has struggled outside of Russia. Cilic is just too strong for Kunitsyn here.
Bellucci just loves the South American clay. It's his favourite period in the year and he is the defending champion in Santiago. He looked clinical in dispatching Volandri in the first round and although Machado will be a step up he shouldn't significantly worry the Brazilian. Machado plys his trade mostly on the chalenger circuit and his only decent showing last year on the ATP tour was in Estoril where he won a couple of matches. But this is an entirely different proposition as he is meeting a confident young player who is a beast on the South American red stuff and will be higlhy motivated to defend the points in which he earned last year.
Cilic to bt Kunitsyn and Bellucci to bt Machado 2.5 pts Double @ 1.47 (Paddypower)
Cilic is obviously a better player than Kunitsyn. When put on a surface he loves and in Zagreb then he looks an absolute lock today. He is the current champion of this event is slowly regaining his form with a good showing at the Australian Open which included a tough win against American John Isner. On a court which he clearly loves, having won back to back titles this will be too tough a match for Kunitsyn to cope with. Kunitsyn struggles big time outside of his homeland, he has been reduced to challengers infact and when he has got into an ATP main draw he has struggled outside of Russia. Cilic is just too strong for Kunitsyn here.
Bellucci just loves the South American clay. It's his favourite period in the year and he is the defending champion in Santiago. He looked clinical in dispatching Volandri in the first round and although Machado will be a step up he shouldn't significantly worry the Brazilian. Machado plys his trade mostly on the chalenger circuit and his only decent showing last year on the ATP tour was in Estoril where he won a couple of matches. But this is an entirely different proposition as he is meeting a confident young player who is a beast on the South American red stuff and will be higlhy motivated to defend the points in which he earned last year.
Cilic to bt Kunitsyn and Bellucci to bt Machado 2.5 pts Double @ 1.47 (Paddypower)
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
Massu vs Zampieri - Santago ATP
Nicolas Massu returns to his homeland Chile tonight to take on Caio Zampieri in what looks to be one of the weakest ATP tour main draw matchups you are likely to see this year.
The 31 year old Chilean has had success in his own backyard in past years, reaching the final in Vina Del Mar twice back in 06 and 07. But that must seem light years away from his current predicament which has seen his form and subsequently his ranking slide dramatically in recent years.
His form last year in main draw ATP and Grand Slam events was a miserable 4-11. And although that makes poor reading, he can take solace in the fact that his opponent tonight will be appearing in only his second ever ATP main draw match. His previous effort ending in defeat two years ago to the Italian Fabio Fognini. That means he did not appear in a single main draw event last year so although Massu's record has been poor over the last year it is still far brighter than his opponents tonight.
With the Chilean vastly more experienced he should be extremely pleased that he has landed a very winnable first round match, and with him playing infront of a home crowd(albeit possibly a very small one) I feel there is a small amount of value on a sufficiently motivated Massu tonight condemning the Brazilian to a second straight ATP main draw defeat.
Massu to bt Zampieri 1pt win @ 13/14 (Unibet)
The 31 year old Chilean has had success in his own backyard in past years, reaching the final in Vina Del Mar twice back in 06 and 07. But that must seem light years away from his current predicament which has seen his form and subsequently his ranking slide dramatically in recent years.
His form last year in main draw ATP and Grand Slam events was a miserable 4-11. And although that makes poor reading, he can take solace in the fact that his opponent tonight will be appearing in only his second ever ATP main draw match. His previous effort ending in defeat two years ago to the Italian Fabio Fognini. That means he did not appear in a single main draw event last year so although Massu's record has been poor over the last year it is still far brighter than his opponents tonight.
With the Chilean vastly more experienced he should be extremely pleased that he has landed a very winnable first round match, and with him playing infront of a home crowd(albeit possibly a very small one) I feel there is a small amount of value on a sufficiently motivated Massu tonight condemning the Brazilian to a second straight ATP main draw defeat.
Massu to bt Zampieri 1pt win @ 13/14 (Unibet)
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